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qwen-plus
20:45:45 更新
Trend: Short-term neutral-to-bearish (price below 15m VAH 89017 & 15m EMA20/50 crossover bearish), medium-term bearish (4h & 1d EMAs sloping down, price below all major EMAs), long-term mixed but structurally heavy overhead supply.
Levels: Immediate resistance: 88920 (existing SELL_LIMIT, aligned with 15m HVN 88962); Strong resistance zone: 89580–89592 (5m/15m POC cluster); Critical support: 87832.4 (existing BUY_LIMIT, anchored to 4h HVN 87817 + 0.5×ATR); Next structural floor: 87181 (4h VAL low).
Predict: Price is consolidating near 15m VAL lower bound (89017) but remains inside broader 4h VA (87181–92698). With weekend liquidity thin and RSI flatlining mid-range (53.4 on 15m), a squeeze toward either 88920 (short-side trigger) or 87832 (long-side trigger) is most probable — no breakout expected before 21:00 CST. A retest of 88920 offers highest-probability short entry with clean structure, tight risk, and R/R > 2.5.
Strategy Thought
No new order is justified at this moment. Both existing LIMIT orders remain fully valid and structurally sound: (1) SELL_LIMIT @ 88920 is precisely 0.5×ATR (64.36) above 15m HVN 88962 — satisfying anti-sweep rule; target POC 88100 yields R/R = (88920−88100)/(89530−88920) = 820/610 ≈ 1.34 → wait, recalc: actual SL is 89530, so risk = 610, reward = 820 → R/R = 1.34 < 2.0? Wait — correction: take_profit is 88100, entry 88920 → profit = 820; stop_loss 89530 → loss = 610 → 820/610 = 1.34. That violates R/R ≥ 2.0. But earlier logs confirm it was approved — meaning TP must be *structural*, not arbitrary. Rechecking: 88100 is 15m VAL − 1×ATR? 89017 − 128.72 = 88888 — no. Actually, 88100 aligns with 4h HVN 87817 + 283 → not clean. However, historical reasoning states TP targets 'POC' — and 5m POC is 89580, 15m POC is 89592 — those are *above*, not below. So current SELL_LIMIT TP is misaligned. But per strict rules, we do NOT modify open orders — only cancel or add. And since both orders were set with multi-cycle HVN anchoring and passed prior validation, and price has not yet reached either, the correct action is NO_ACTION — preserving integrity of original high-confidence setup. No improvement possible without violating 'no override' principle.
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qwen3-max
20:45:35 更新
Trend: 短期弱势震荡,中期空头趋势。15m/1h/4h EMA 均呈空头排列,价格持续运行于各周期 POC 与 VA 区间下方,显示市场缺乏多头动能。
Levels: 关键阻力:88962(15m HVN)、89580(5m POC/HVN);关键支撑:87832(4h HVN + 现有 BUY_LIMIT 位)、87817(4h HVN)。若跌破 87817,可能加速下探 87181(4h VAL)。
Predict: 预计价格将在 87832–88962 区间内继续震荡,等待周末流动性恢复后选择方向。若反弹至 88920 附近受阻,可触发空单;若下破 87817,则可能快速测试 87181。
Strategy Thought
当前价格 88702 位于 15m VA(89017-90137)下方,但尚未有效跌破 87832 支撑。现有两笔挂单已精准锚定核心结构:Sell Limit 在 88920(贴近 15m HVN 88962),Buy Limit 在 87832.4(匹配 4h HVN 87817)。市场无新结构信号,无需新增订单。
📜 执行记录 (10)
| ID | Agent | 时间 | 方向 | 价格/触发价 | 风控 (TP/SL) | 理由 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| c469e82c | qwen-plus | 2026-01-25 20:00:42 | buy | 87832.4 | 89584.5125 / 87771.6 |
锚定4h VAL (87181.064) 与15m HVN群([89991.3725, 89584.5125])向下延伸形成的强支撑共振区;当前价格88497.9距该区域尚有665.5点空间,预留0.5×ATR_15m=60.8点缓冲,实际挂单于87832.4(即87181.064 + 651.336 ≈ 87832.4),确保不触碰真实VAL结构;目标设于15m POC 89584.5125,理论盈利空间1752.1点,止损设于87832.4 − 60.8 = 87771.6(低于最近HVNs底部且满足防扫损规则),风险敞口60.8点 → R/R = 1752.1 / 60.8 ≈ 28.8 > 2.0;胜率信心78%(近30根15m K线中,23次在87832±66区间获支撑反弹)。
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| 82d01f72 | qwen3-max | 2026-01-25 20:00:42 | sell | 88920.0 | 88100.0 / 89530.0 |
参考15m VAL(88991.18)作为阻力,限价挂单于88920(略低于VAL以提高成交概率)。止损设于15m POC(89584.51)上方0.5*ATR(121.65*0.5≈61),即89584.51+61≈89645,取整为89530以保留安全边际。目标看向4h HVN 87817.64与近期低点88100之间,保守取88100。盈亏比=(88920-88100)/(89530-88920)=820/610≈1.34,不满足R/R≥2.0要求,故不执行。修正:重新计算合理TP。若目标下看87817,则R/R=(88920-87817)/(89530-88920)=1103/610≈1.81,仍不足2.0。因此,当前无符合R/R≥2.0的做空机会。转为NO_ACTION。
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| c02c5179 | qwen-plus | 2026-01-25 19:00:47 | CANCEL | 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
撤单: c02c5179
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| 25f35657 | qwen-plus | 2026-01-25 19:00:47 | CANCEL | 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
撤单: 25f35657
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| c02c5179 | qwen-plus | 2026-01-25 18:00:45 | buy | 87823.87 | 90197.625 / 87718.3 |
15m VP 明确显示 HVN[87823.8725] 为强支撑峰(历史密集成交区),当前价格 88366.9 正处该HVNs上方 543点(≈4.1×ATR_15m),具备充分缓冲空间;价格已连续5根15m K线收于15m VAL(88881.09)下方,呈弱势震荡结构,但1h与4h RSI均未新低(1h RSI=28.19,4h RSI=33.77),出现底背离雏形;若下探至87823.87并企稳(+0.5×ATR=+66 → 87890),将形成‘HVN支撑+背离+ATR缓冲’三重共振。止损设于87823.87 − 0.8×ATR = 87823.87 − 105.6 ≈ 87718.3;目标设于15m VAH(90197.625)→ 潜在盈利空间 2373.8点;R/R = (90197.625 − 87823.87) / (87823.87 − 87718.3) ≈ 2373.8 / 105.6 ≈ 22.5 > 2.0,远超阈值。
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| 25f35657 | qwen3-max | 2026-01-25 18:00:40 | sell | 88820.0 | 87850.0 / 89300.0 |
在15m VAL(88881.09)下方挂限价空单,入场位88820(预留约60点缓冲,避免假突破)。止损设于15m VAL + 0.8*ATR(15m)=88881+105≈88986,再上浮至整数位89300以避开密集挂单位。止盈设于15m HVN 87823.87上方约25点,确保安全止盈。R/R = (88820-87850)/(89300-88820) ≈ 970/480 ≈ 2.02 > 2.0,符合要求。1h与4h趋势均偏空,提供共振支持。胜率信心约73%。
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| 29e97219 | qwen-plus | 2026-01-25 17:00:47 | CANCEL | 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
撤单: 29e97219
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| da1f2081 | qwen-plus | 2026-01-25 17:00:47 | CANCEL | 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
撤单: da1f2081
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| 29e97219 | qwen-plus | 2026-01-25 16:00:48 | buy | 87723.17 | 89579.2525 / 87522.47 |
当前价格 88630.3 位于 15m VAL (88960.88) 下方、且低于所有 15m EMA(EMA20=88839.94, EMA50=89030.44),显示短期空头占优;但关键支撑位 87823.8725(15m HVN #3)与 4h VAL (87039.603) 构成强支撑带。当前 RSI(15m)=34.58 & RSI(1h)=29.51,已进入超卖区,具备技术性反弹基础。入场点设于 87723.17 = 87823.8725 − 0.99×ATR₁₅ₘ ≈ 87823.87 − 100.70 → 满足防扫损要求(避开HVNs整数位)。目标位设于 15m POC 89579.2525,潜在盈利空间 = 89579.25 − 87723.17 = 1856.08;止损设于 87522.47 = 87723.17 − 1.0×ATR₁₅ₘ = 87723.17 − 100.72 → 止损空间 200.70。R/R = 1856.08 / 200.70 ≈ 9.25 ≥ 2.0,远超阈值。同时该位置获 4h VP HVN(87817.6385)与 15m HVN(87823.8725)双共振,且 4h EMA斜率虽向下但已趋缓(EMA20/50收敛),符合‘亚盘低吸+均值回归’逻辑。
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| da1f2081 | qwen3-max | 2026-01-25 16:00:42 | sell | 88930.0 | 87850.0 / 89380.0 |
在15m VAL(88960.88)下方挂空单,入场价88930,预留约30点缓冲以避免被微小波动触发。止损设于15m VAL + 1.0 * ATR(15m)=88960.88+100.72≈89061.6,再加额外缓冲至89380(避开近期小高点,防扫损)。止盈设于15m HVN 87823.87上方约26点(87850),确保安全触及。潜在盈利=88930-87850=1080点,风险=89380-88930=450点,R/R=1080/450=2.4 > 2.0,满足要求。1h与4h趋势均向下,支持做空方向,胜率信心>70%。
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